Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 13.715080 15.694005 17.827520 20.294906 23.065873 26.077685 29.595067
2025-03-02 10.920967 13.623092 16.762284 20.663224 25.364078 30.828599 37.643180
2025-03-09 9.330855 12.310071 15.941768 20.665762 26.615999 33.827059 43.188766
2025-03-16 8.028064 11.141616 15.104840 20.474266 27.506751 36.345504 48.227798
2025-03-23 7.174248 10.402825 14.668365 20.651784 28.751864 39.248812 53.777253
2025-03-30 6.647514 10.025489 14.639206 21.313485 30.615534 42.996937 60.572759
2025-04-06 5.938567 9.305018 14.053210 21.128427 31.267031 45.108923 65.233030
2025-04-13 5.087654 8.284064 12.939955 20.085101 30.609077 45.340243 67.263594
2025-04-20 4.760431 8.010620 12.876657 20.533209 32.074587 48.571506 73.606174
2025-04-27 4.456627 7.739679 12.785470 20.915441 33.441431 51.701437 79.922254
2025-05-04 4.072266 7.300519 12.394379 20.798548 34.031465 53.701025 84.652085
2025-05-11 3.693733 6.833196 11.916986 20.501467 34.307673 55.220529 88.705213
2025-05-18 3.417266 6.519843 11.672926 20.573292 35.184394 57.723338 94.419951
2025-05-25 3.197564 6.284820 11.538847 20.811670 36.334356 60.696280 100.991760
2025-06-01 2.967497 6.007222 11.306355 20.859580 37.160354 63.177626 106.876164
2025-06-08 2.718466 5.670029 10.941990 20.651260 37.538171 64.946684 111.688371
2025-06-15 2.553982 5.475876 10.812707 20.835336 38.573736 67.805899 118.349441
2025-06-22 2.472071 5.433694 10.952775 21.500525 40.460705 72.131910 127.565639
2025-06-29 2.280800 5.155713 10.635362 21.314608 40.846474 73.966474 132.725407
2025-07-06 1.998869 4.664711 9.877332 20.262787 39.630329 73.028350 133.181157
2025-07-13 1.921386 4.593863 9.921585 20.714528 41.138284 76.803772 141.768162
2025-07-20 1.841298 4.509720 9.932398 21.099774 42.538220 80.440898 150.245800
2025-07-27 1.713490 4.308518 9.693284 20.981961 42.992589 82.427924 155.920891